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金融学·课件梳理6 比率分析与财务预测2


2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料

金融学· 课件梳理
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Lesson6Ratio Analysis and Financial Forecast2 第 6 课比率分析与财务预测 2 Today’s Agenda
? Financial Forecast (本档从略) ? Ratio Analysis -Cont

Ratio Analysis-Cont
1、Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities andEquity

Income statement

Other data

2、Why are ratios useful?
? Ratios standardize numbers and facilitate comparisons.比例标准化和便于比较。

? Ratiocomparisonsshould be made through time and with competitors 比率比较应该通过时间和竞争者来制定。
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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

? Trend analysis趋势分析 ? Peer (or Industry) analysis 对等(或行业)分析 ? Ratios are used to highlight weaknesses and strengths.比率用于突出弱点和长处。

3、What are the five major categories of ratios,

比率的五大类别是什么?,

and what questions do they answer?他们回答什么问题?
? Liquidity: Can we make required payments? 流动资金:我们可以要求支付吗? ? Asset management: Right amount of assets vs. sales? 资产管理:正确的资产数量与销售额? ? Debt management: Right mix of debt and equity? 债务管理:债务和股权的正确组合? ? Profitability:Dosalespricesexceedunit costs? 盈利能力:销售价格是否超过单位成本? ? Market value: Do investors like what they see as reflected in P/E and M/B ratios? 市场价值:投资者喜欢他们所看到的反映在市盈率和市盈率上的因素吗?

4、D’Leon’s forecasted current ratio andquick ratio for 2009.
Current ratio = Current assets / Current liabilities 流动比率=流动资产/流动负债 = $2,680 / $1,145 = 2.34x Quick ratio= (CA – Inventories) / CL = ($2,680 – $1,716) / $1,145 = 0.84x

5、Comments on liquidity ratios 对流动性比率的评论

Expected to improve but still below the industry average. 预计将改善,但仍低于行业平均水平。
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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

Liquidity position is weak. 流动性弱。

6、All else being equal, which of the following will increase the CR?
An increase in accounts receivable.应收账款的增加。 An increase in accounts payable.应付账款的增加。 An increase in net fixed assets.净固定资产增加。 Both 1 and 2 are correct. All of the statements are correct.

7、What is the inventory turnover ratio?存货周转率是多少?
?Inv. turnover= Sales / Inventories= $7,036 / $1,716= 4.10x 投资周转率=销售/库存

? Inventory turnover is

below

industry average.

存货周转率低于行业平均水平。 ? D’Leon might have old inventory, or its control might be poor. 德裏昂可能旧的存货,或控制可能是贫穷的。 ? No improvement is currently forecasted. 目前没有改善的预测。 If a firm switched to Vendor Managed Inventory, the inventory turnover ratio would 如果一家公司转向供应商管理的库存,库存周转率将…… increase. decrease.

7、DSO (Days Sales Outstanding)销售回款
DSO: Average number of days after making a sale before receiving cash. 销售回款:在收到现金做销售的平均天数。 DSO = Receivables / Avg sales per day=应收账款/平均每天销售
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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

= Receivables / (Annual sales/365)=应收账款/(年度销售额/ 365) = $878 / ($7,036/365) = 45.6 days

8、Appraisal of DSO

D’Leon collects on sales too slowly, and is getting worse. D’Leon has a poor credit policy.

9、Fixed assets and total assets turnover ratios 固定资产和总资产周转率
FA turnover = Sales / Net fixed assets= $7,036 / $817 = 8.61x TA turnover = Sales / Total assets= $7,036 / $3,497 = 2.01x

10、Evaluating the FA turnover and TA turnover ratios

FA turnover projected to exceed the industry average.
固定资产营业额预计超过行业平均水平。

TA turnover below the industry average.

总资产营业额低于行业平均水平。

Caused by excessive currents assets (A/R and Inv).

11、Calculate the debt ratio and times-interest-earned ratio. 计算负债率和倍利息收益率。
Debt ratio = Total debt / Total assets = 负债比率=债务总额/总资产 = ($1,145 + $400) / $3,497 = 44.2% TIE= EBIT / Interest expense =倍利息收益=息税前利润/利息费用 = $492.6 / $70 = 7.0x

12、How do the debt management ratioscompare with industry averages?

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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

D/A and TIE are better than the industry average. 13、Profitability ratios:Profit margin and Basic earning power 盈利比率:利润率和基本盈利能力
Profit margin = Net income / Sales= $253.6 / $7,036 = 3.6% BEP= EBIT / Total assets= $492.6 / $3,497 = 14.1%

14、Appraising profitability with the profitmargin and basic earning power 以利润率和基本盈利能力评价盈利能力

Profit margin was very bad in 2008, but is projected to exceed the industry average in 2009. 2008 的利润率很差,但预计在 2009 会超过行业平均水平。 Looking good. BEP removes the effects of taxes and financial leverage, and is useful for comparison. BEP 消除税收和财务杠杆的影响,并进行比较是有用的。 BEP projected to improve, yet still below the industry average. BEP 预计提高,但仍低于行业平均水平。 There is definitely room for improvement.当然还有改进的余地。

15、Profitability ratios:Return on assets and Return on equity 盈利比率:资产回报率和股本回报率
ROA = Net income / Total assets= $253.6 / $3,497 = 7.3% ROE = Net income / Total common equity= $253.6 / $1,952 = 13.0%

16、Appraising profitability with ROAand ROE 用 ROA 和 ROE 评估盈利能力

Both ratios rebounded from the previous year, but are still below the industry average.
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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

这两个比率都比前一年有所回升,但仍低于行业平均水平。 More improvement is needed. Wide variations in ROE illustrate the effect that leverage can have on profitability. ROE 的广泛变化说明了杠杆作用对盈利能力的影响。

17、Problems with ROE
? ROE and shareholder wealth are correlated, but problems can arise when ROE is the sole measure of performance. 净资产收益率和股东财富是相关的,但当 ROE 是业绩的唯一衡量标准时,可能会 出现问题。 ? ROE does not consider risk. ? ROE does not consider the amount of capital invested. ? ROE focuses only on return and a better measure would consider risk and return. ROE 只注重回报,更好的衡量标准是考虑风险和回报。

18、When is ROA=ROE?
Company uses only debt. Company uses only equity. TA/E=0. TA/E=1. Both 2 and 4 are correct.

19、Calculate the Price/Earnings and Market/Bookratios.
P/E= Price / Earnings per share= $12.17 / $1.014 = 12.0x P/CF= Price / Cash Flow per share= $12.17/ [($253.6+$117.0) ÷ 250] =8.21x M/B= Market price / Book value per share= $12.17 / ($1,952 / 250) = 1.56x

20、Analyzing the market value ratios 分析市场价值比率
? P/E: How much investors are willing to pay for $1 of earnings. ? P/CF: How much investors are willingto pay for 1$ of cash flow. ? M/B: How much investors are willingto pay for $1 of book value equity. ? For each ratio, the higher the number, the better.

21、The Du Pont system 杜邦系统
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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

? Focuses on: ? Expense control (PM) 费用控制 ? Asset utilization (TATO) 资产利用率 ? Debt utilization (Equity Multiplier) 债务率(权益乘数) ? Shows how these factors combine to determineROE.

22、DuPont equation:Breaking down ROE
ROE =(NI / Sales) x (Sales/TA) x (TA/Equity)=3.6%x 2x1.8= 13.0%

23、An example:The effects of improving ratios
A/R $ 878 Debt $1,545 Other CA 1,802 Equity 1,952 Net FA817 TA$3,497Total L&E $3,497 Sales / day = $7,035,600 / 365 = $19,275.62 How would reducing the firm’s DSO to 32 days affect the company? 如何降低企业的 DSO 为 32 天影响公司?

24、Reducing accounts receivable and the days sales outstanding 减少应收账款和销售回款
? Reducing A/R will have no effect on sales 降价对销售没有影响。 Old A/R = $19,275.62 x 45.6 = $878,000 New A/R = $19,275.62 x 32.0 = $616,820 Cash freed up: $261,180 Initially shows up as addition to cash.最初显示为现金增加。

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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

25、Effect of reducing receivables on balance sheet and stock price 应收账款减少对资产负债表和股票价格的影响

What could be done with the new cash?

How might stock price and risk be affected?

26、Potential uses of freed up cash 释放现金的潜在用途
? Repurchase stock回购股票 ? Expand business 拓展业务 ? Reduce debt 减少债务 ? All these actions would likely improve the stock price. 所有这些行动可能会提高股票价格。

27、Potential problems and limitations offinancial ratio analysis
? Comparison with industry averages is difficult for a conglomerate firm that operates in many different divisions. 与许多行业不同的企业集团相比,行业平均水平比较困难。 ? “Average” performance is not necessarily good,perhaps the f irm should aim higher. “平均”表现不一定好,也许公司应该瞄准更高的目标。 ? Seasonal factors can distort ratios. 季节因素可以扭曲比率。 ? “Window dressing” techniquescanmake statements and ratios look better. “粉饰”技术可以使报表和比率看起来更好。

28、More issues regarding ratios
? Differentoperating and accountingpracticescan distort comparisons. 不同的经营和会计惯例会扭曲比较。
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2017-2018 学年度第二学期期末考试复习材料 金融学·课件梳理

? Sometimes it is hard to tell if a ratio is “good” or “bad”. ? Difficultto tell whether acompanyis, onbalance, in strong or weak position. 很难判断一家公司是处于平衡还是处于强势或弱势地位。

29、Qualitative factors to be considered

when evaluating a company’s future

financial performance 评价公司未来财务业绩时应考虑的定性因素
? Arethefirm’srevenuestiedtoonekey customer, product, or supplier? 公司的收入是否与一个关键客户、产品或供应商挂钩? ? What percentageof thefirm’sbusinessisgenerated overseas? ? Competition ? F uture prospects 未来展望 ? Legal and regulatory environment 法律和监管环境

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