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管理学chapter9


ninth edition

STEPHEN P. ROBBINS

MARY COULTER

Chapter

9
? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

Planning Tools and Techniques

PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook The University of West Alabama

LEARNING OUTLINE
Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.

Techniques for Assessing the Environment
? List the different approaches to assess the environment. ? Explain what competitor intelligence is and ways that managers can do it legally and ethically. ? Describe how managers can improve the effectiveness of forecasting. ? List the steps in the benchmarking process.

Techniques for Allocating Resources
? List the four techniques for allocating resources. ? Describe the different types of budgets. ? Explain what a Gantt chart and a load chart do.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–2

L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d)
Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.

Techniques for Allocating Resources (cont’d)
? Describe how PERT network analysis works. ? Understand how to compute a breakeven point. ? Describe how managers can use linear programming.

Contemporary Planning Techniques
? Explain why flexibility is so important to today’s planning techniques. ? Describe project management. ? List the steps in the project planning process. ? Discuss why scenario planning is an important planning tool.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–3

Assessing the Environment
? Environmental Scanning
? The screening of large amounts of information to anticipate and interpret change in the environment. ? Competitor Intelligence
?

The process of gathering information about competitors—who they are; what they are doing – Is not spying but rather careful attention to readily accessible information from employees, customers, suppliers, the Internet, and competitors themselves.

?

May involve reverse engineering of competing products to discover technical innovations.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–4

Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
? Environmental Scanning (cont’d)
? Global Scanning
?

Screening a broad scope of information on global forces that might affect the organization. Has value to firms with significant global interests.

?

?

Draws information from sources that provide global perspectives on world-wide issues and opportunities.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–5

Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
? Forecasting
? The part of organizational planning that involves creating predictions of outcomes based on information gathered by environmental scanning.
?

Facilitates managerial decision making. Is most accurate in stable environments.

?

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–6

Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
? Forecasting Techniques
? Quantitative forecasting
?

Applying a set of mathematical rules to a series of hard data to predict outcomes (e.g., units to be produced).

? Qualitative forecasting
?

Using expert judgments and opinions to predict less than precise outcomes (e.g., direction of the economy).

? Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) Software
? A standardized way for organizations to use the Internet to exchange data.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–7

Exhibit 9–1 Forecasting Techniques

? Quantitative ? Time series analysis ? Regression models ? Econometric models

? Economic indicators ? Substitution effect ? Qualitative ? Jury of opinion ? Sales force composition ? Customer evaluation
? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–8

Making Forecasting More Effective
1. Use simple forecasting methods. 2. Compare each forecast with its corresponding ―no change‖ forecast. 3. Don’t rely on a single forecasting method. 4. Don’t assume that the turning points in a trend can be accurately identified. 5. Shorten the time period covered by a forecast. 6. Remember that forecasting is a developed managerial skill that supports decision making.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–9

Benchmarking
? The search for the best practices among competitors and noncompetitors that lead to their superior performance. ? By analyzing and copying these practices, firms can improve their performance.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–10

Exhibit 9–2 Steps in Benchmarking

Source: Based on Y.K. Shetty, ―Aiming High: Competitive Benchmarking for Superior Performance,‖ Long Range Planning. February 1993, p. 42.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–11

Allocating Resources
? Types of Resources
? The assets of the organization
? ? ? ?

Financial: debt, equity, and retained earnings Physical: buildings, equipment, and raw materials Human: experiences, skills, knowledge, and competencies Intangible: brand names, patents, reputation, trademarks, copyrights, and databases

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–12

Allocating Resources: Budgeting
? Budgets
? Are numerical plans for allocating resources (e.g., revenues, expenses, and capital expenditures). ? Are used to improve time, space, and use of material resources. ? Are the most commonly used and most widely applicable planning technique for organizations.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–13

Exhibit 9–3 Types of Budgets

Source: Based on R.S. Russell and B.W. Taylor III. Production and Operations Management (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995), p. 287.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–14

Exhibit 9–4 Suggestions for Improving Budgeting

? Collaborate and communicate. ? Be flexible. ? Goals should drive budgets—budgets should not determine goals.

? Coordinate budgeting throughout the organization.
? Use budgeting/planning software when appropriate. ? Remember that budgets are tools. ? Remember that profits result from smart management, not because you budgeted for them.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–15

Allocating Resources: Scheduling
? Schedules
? Plans that allocate resources by detailing what activities have to be done, the order in which they are to be completed, who is to do each, and when they are to be completed.

? Represent the coordination of various activities.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–16

Allocating Resources: Charting
? Gantt Chart
? A bar graph with time on the horizontal axis and activities to be accomplished on the vertical axis. ? Shows the expected and actual progress of various tasks.

? Load Chart
? A modified Gantt chart that lists entire departments or specific resources on the vertical axis. ? Allows managers to plan and control capacity utilization.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–17

Exhibit 9–5 A Gantt Chart

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–18

Exhibit 9–6 A Load Chart

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–19

Allocating Resources: Analysis
? Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
? A flow chart diagram that depicts the sequence of activities needed to complete a project and the time or costs associated with each activity.
? ? ?

Events: endpoints for completion. Activities: time required for each activity. Slack time: the time that a completed activity waits for another activity to finish so that the next activity, which depends on the completion of both activities, can start.

?

Critical path: the path (ordering) of activities that allows all tasks to be completed with the least slack time.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–20

Exhibit 9–7 Steps in Developing a PERT Network

1. Identify every significant activity that must be achieved for a project to be completed.

2. Determine the order in which these events must be completed.
3. Diagram the flow of activities from start to finish, identifying each activity and its relationship to all other activities. 4. Compute a time estimate for completing each activity. 5. Using the network diagram that contains time estimates for each activity, determine a schedule for the start and finish dates of each activity and for the entire project.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–21

Exhibit 9–8 Events and Activities in Constructing an Office Building

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–22

Exhibit 9–9 A Visual PERT Network for Constructing an Office Building

Critical Path: A - B - C - D - G - H - J - K

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–23

Allocating Resources: Analysis (cont’d)
? Breakeven Analysis
? Is used to determine the point at which all fixed costs have been recovered and profitability begins.
? ?

Fixed cost (FC) Variable costs (VC)

?
?

Total Fixed Costs (TFC)
Price (P)

? The Break-even Formula:

Total Fixed Costs Breakeven: Unit Price - Unit VariableCosts
? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–24

Exhibit 9–10 Breakeven Analysis

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–25

Allocating Resources: Analysis (cont’d)
? Linear Programming
? A technique that seeks to solve resource allocation problems using the proportional relationships between two variables.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–26

Exhibit 9–11 Production Data for Cinnamon-Scented Products

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–27

Exhibit 9–12 Graphical Solution to Linear Programming Problem

Max. Assembly Max. Manufacturing

Max. Profits

Max. Assembly

Max. Manufacturing

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–28

Contemporary Planning Techniques
? Project
? A one-time-only set of activities that has a definite beginning and ending point time.

? Project Management
? The task of getting a project’s activities done on time, within budget, and according to specifications.
? ? ?

Define project goals

Identify all required activities, materials, and labor
Determine the sequence of completion

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–29

Exhibit 9–13 Project Planning Process

Source: Based on R.S. Russell and B.W. Taylor III, Production and Operations Management (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995), p. 287.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–30

Contemporary Planning Techniques (cont’d)
? Scenario
? A consistent view of what the future is likely to be.

? Scenario Planning
? An attempt not try to predict the future but to reduce uncertainty by playing out potential situations under different specified conditions.

? Contingency Planning
? Developing scenarios that allow managers determine in advance what their actions should be should a considered event actually occur.
? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–31

Exhibit 9–14 Preparing for Unexpected Events

? Identify potential unexpected events. ? Determine if any of these events would have early indicators. ? Set up an information gathering system to identify early indicators. ? Have appropriate responses (plans) in place if these unexpected events occur.

Source: S. Caudron, ―Frontview Mirror,‖ Business Finance, December 1999, pp. 24–30.

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–32

Terms to Know
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? environmental scanning competitor intelligence forecasts quantitative forecasting qualitative forecasting benchmarking resources budget scheduling Gantt chart load chart ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? PERT network events activities slack time critical path breakeven analysis linear programming project project management scenario

? 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.

9–33


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