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管理学Chapter9


Chapter 9 Planning Tools and Techniques

Contents
1.

Techniques for Assessing the Environment

2.

Techniques for Allocating Resources Contemporary Planning Techniques

3.

Techniques For Assessing the Environment
? Environmental

Scanning

?The screening of large amounts of information to

anticipate and interpret changes in the environment.

Techniques For Assessing the Environment
? Competitor

Intelligence

?The process of gathering information about

competitors—who they are?; what are they doing?
?Is not spying but rather careful attention to readily

accessible information from employees, customers, suppliers, the Internet, and competitors themselves.
?May involved reverse

engineering of competing

products to discover technical innovations.

Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
?

Environmental Scanning (cont’d)
? Global Scanning ?Screening a broad scope of information on global forces

that might affect the organization.
?Has value to firms with significant global interests. ?Draws information from sources that provide global

perspectives on world-wide issues and opportunities.

Techniques For Assessing the Environment
?

Forecasting
? Predictions of outcomes.

?Facilitates managerial decision making. ?Is most accurate in stable environments.

Techniques For Assessing the Environment
? Types

of Forecasting

?Quantitative forecasting ?Forecasting that applies a set of mathematical

rules to a series of past data to predict outcomes
?Qualitative forecasting

?Foresting that uses the judgment and opinions of

knowledgeable individuals to predict outcomes

Forecasting Techniques
? Quantitative

? Time series analysis ? Regression models ? Econometric models ? Economic indicators ? Substitution effect ? Qualitative ? Jury of opinion ? Salesforce composition ? Customer evaluation

Forecasting Techniques
Technique
Quantitative Time series analysis Regression models Econometric models Economic indicators Substitution effect
Fits a trend line to a mathematical equation and projects into the future by means of this equation Predicts one variable on the basis of known or assumed other variables Uses a set of regression equations to simulate segments of the economy Uses one or more economic indicators to predict a future state of the economy Uses a mathematical formula to predict how, when, and under what circumstances a new product or technology will replace an existing one Predicting next quarter's sales on the basis of four years of previous sales data Seeking factors that will predict a certain level of sales (for example, price, advertising expenditures) Predicting change in car sales as a result of changes in tax laws Using change in GNP to predict discretionary income Predicting the effect of DVD players on the sale of VHS players

Description

Application

Forecasting Techniques
Technique
Qualitative

Description Combines and averages the opinions of experts

Application Polling the company's human resource managers to predict next year's college recruitment needs Predicting next year's sales of industrial lasers

Jury of opinion

Salesforce composition

Combines estimates from field sales personnel of customers' expected purchases Combines estimates from established purchases

Customer evaluation

Surveying major car dealers by a car manufacturer to determine types and quantities of products desired

Techniques For Assessing the Environment
?

Benchmarking
? The search for the best practices among competitors and

noncompetitors that lead to their superior performance.
?By analyzing and copying these practices, firms can

improve their performance.

Steps in Benchmarking

Contents
1.

Techniques for Assessing the Environment

2.

Techniques for Allocating Resources Contemporary Planning Techniques

3.

Allocating Resources
? Types

of Resources

?The assets of the organization
?Financial: debt, equity, and retained earnings ?Physical: buildings, equipment, and raw materials ?Human: experiences, skills, knowledge, and competencies

?Intangible: brand names, patents, reputation, trademarks,

copyrights, and databases
?Structural/cultural: history, culture, work systems,

working relationships, trust, and policies

Allocating Resources: Budgeting
?

Budget
? A numerical plan for allocating resources to specific

activities.
?e.g., revenues, expenses, and capital expenditures ?Are the most commonly used and most widely applicable

planning technique for organizations.

Types of Budgets

Exhibit 9.3

Suggestions for Improving Budgeting
? Be flexible. ? Goals should drive budgets— budgets should not determine goals.

? Coordinate budgeting throughout the organization.
? Use budgeting/planning software when appropriate. ? Remember that budgets are tools. ? Remember that profits result from smart management, not because you budgeted for them.

Allocating Resources: Scheduling
?

Scheduling
? Detailing what activities have to be done, the order in

which they are to be completed, who is to do each, and when they are to be completed.
?Represent the coordination of various activities.

Allocating Resources: Charting
?

Gantt Chart
? A scheduling chart developed by Henry Gantt (an associate of

the scientific management expert Frederick Taylor ) that shows actual and planned output over a period of time.
? bar graph with time on the horizontal axis and activities to be

accomplished on the vertical axis.
? Shows the expected and actual progress of various tasks.

A Gantt Chart

A Gantt Chart
?

Advantages
? Gantt charts are quite commonly used. They provide an easy

graphical representation of when activities (might) take place.
?

Limitations
? Do not clearly indicate details regarding the progress of

activities ? Do not give a clear indication of interrelation ship between the separate activities

Allocating Resources: Charting
?

Load Chart
? A modified Gantt chart that schedules capacity by entire

departments or specific resources.
?Allows managers to plan and control capacity

utilization.

A Load Chart

Allocating Resources: Analysis
?

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
? Developed by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile
? A flowchart diagram showing the sequence of activities needed

to complete a project and the time or cost associated with each.
? Events: end points that represent the completion of major

activities in a PERT network.
? Activities: the time or resources needed to progress from one

event to another in a PERT network.
? Slack time: the amount of time an individual activity can be

delayed without delaying the whole project.
? Critical path: the longest sequence of activities in a PERT

network.

Steps in Developing a PERT Network
1. Identify every significant activity that must be achieved for a project to be completed. 2. Determine the order in which these events must be completed.

3. Diagram the flow of activities from start to finish, identifying each activity and its relationship to all other activities.
4. Compute a time estimate for completing each activity. 5. Using the network diagram that contains time estimates for each activity, determine a schedule for the start and finish dates of each activity and for the entire project.

A PERT Network for Constructing an Office Building

A PERT Network for Constructing an Office Building

1. A-B-C-D-I-J-K
2. A-B-C-D-G-H-J-K 3. A-B-C-E-G-H-J-K

44Weeks
50Weeks 47Weeks

4. A-B-C-F-G-H-J-K

47Weeks

A PERT Network for Constructing an Office Building
4

D
6 10 6 14 3 5 5 5

I

3 1

J

K

Start

A

B

C
3

E
5

G

H

3

F
Critical Path: A - B - C - D - G - H - J - K

Allocating Resources: Analysis (cont’d)
?

Breakeven Analysis
? A technique for identifying the point at which total revenue is just sufficient to cover total costs.
?Fixed cost (FC)

?Variable costs (VC)
?Total Fixed Costs (TFC) ?Price (P)

? The

Break-even Formula:
: Total Fixed Costs Unit Price - Unit Variable Costs

Breakeven

Breakeven Analysis

Allocating Resources: Analysis (cont’d)
?

Linear Programming
? A mathematical technique that solves resource

allocation problems.

Production Data for Cinnamon-Scented Products

Graphical Solution to Linear Programming Problem

A (0,0) B (0,300) C (300,150) D (450,0)

Contents
1.

Techniques for Assessing the Environment

2.

Techniques for Allocating Resources Contemporary Planning Techniques

3.

Contemporary Planning Techniques
? Project
? A one-time-only set of activities that has a definite

beginning and ending point time. ? Project

Management

? The task of getting a project’s activities done on time,

within budget, and according to specifications.
?Define project goals
?Identify all required activities, materials, and labor ?Determine the sequence of completion

Project Planning Process

Contemporary Planning Techniques
? Scenario
? A consistent view of what the future is likely to be.

? Scenario

Planning

?An attempt not try to predict the future but to reduce

uncertainty by playing out potential situations under different specified conditions.
?Contingency Planning
?Developing scenarios that allow managers determine in

advance what their actions should be should a considered event actually occur.

Terms to Know
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

environmental scanning competitor intelligence forecasts quantitative forecasting qualitative forecasting benchmarking resources budget scheduling Gantt chart load chart

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

PERT network events activities slack time critical path breakeven analysis linear programming project project management scenario


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